Soto suffering from a little bad luck

ANALYSIS – Cubs

For as bad as Geovany Soto has been in 2009, the recent declaration by Lou Piniella to virtually hand over the reigns to Koyie Hill for the rest of 2009 is an odd move. Considering how patient Piniella has been with Alfonso Soriano, his short leash with Soto throughout the season seems a bit drastic in comparison.

The proverbial sophomore slump seems to be hanging over Soto’s head, and it may have more value than just being a jinx, especially in baseball. More experienced hitters and pitchers can adjust to tendencies and exploit weaknesses of young ballplayers. But even Soto’s teammates have said that his approach hasn’t changed and he seems to be hitting the ball relatively well. If there’s such a thing as “hard outs,” Soto seems to be making plenty of them. Statistical evidence actually backs up this claim.

Fangraphs published a story a few days ago that documented Soto’s flyball and line drive numbers. His flyballs are right on track, he’s just not getting the power he did in 2008. Additionally, he’s actually swinging at better pitches. Here’s the chart and Fangraphs explanation.

(Blue is fly balls)

Uh-huh. No major changes, really. He’s hitting just a few more fly balls, but less are leaving the yard – down to 10.2% compared to 14.7% last year. That says something about why his power production is down, but it doesn’t explain why his batting average is hanging around the Mendoza line. Consider also his plate discipline numbers. Soto’s walks are up and his strikeouts are slightly down. He’s swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone – 20.1% last year, down to 18.1% this season – and he is making more contact when he does swing –74.7% last year, 77.4% this year. So he’s being more selective and making more contact when he does pull the trigger. It’s just as if he is almost always hitting the ball right at someone.

Not only that, Fangraphs figured out that Soto’s BABIP should be .314 instead of .245. So other than a loss of power, which could be credited to his extra weight, Soto has actually been very unlucky. The unfortunate consequence has been a batting line of .212/.318/.331.

Hill’s batting line isn’t much better. At .240/.323/.341, he’s only slightly better than Soto. But while Soto struggled in August, Hill posted an OPS of .846. Also, inexplicably, the Cubs are considerably better when Soto is on the bench. The Cubs are 35-23 when Hill gets the nod to start behind the plate. But there’s little to suggest why this would be the case. The Cubs pitching staff is only slightly worse when Soto pitches versus Hill. Their slash lines are comparable (Soto .255/.331/.410; Hill .237/.321/.378) and in some cases, Soto yields better results (Soto 2.12 SO/BB; Hill 2.02). In fact, the difference, again, comes down to luck. The BABIP when Soto catches is 7 points higher than average, while 11 points better than average when Hill catches. And, once again, home runs hurt Soto. The inflated slugging percentage compared to Hill is caused in large part by the 31 more home runs pitchers have allowed when Soto catches.

So, Soto’s struggles and the team’s struggles when he catches are caused by luck and the long ball. Maybe the sophomore slump is more of a jinx after all.