Can Wells continue his dominance?

ANALYSIS — Cubs

Rookie Randy Wells will take the mound tomorrow for the Cubs to kick off Round 2 of the Crosstown Classic. In his last start, Wells (finally) got his first win of the season, going 6 2/3 strong innings and allowing just two earned runs. The Indians were baffled by Wells’ fastball/changeup combination, which has led to his success so far this season, despite not possessing overpowering “stuff.”

Here’s what Cleveland manager Eric Wedge and infielder Jamey Carroll had to say about Wells’s last start:

Wedge: “He really threw the ball well today. He really mixed up speeds with his fastball and he mixes his changeup, you know different speeds on his changeup as well. He was down, he was hitting his spots. He controlled the ball game.”

Carroll: “He was a good pitcher, he had a good changeup. His straight four seam changeup has the same rotation as his fastball. It was tough to make the adjustment with it. When youre throwing that right at the bottom of the zone it makes for a tough day because you obviously think it’s a fastball. When they have the same look it’s tough to figure out. Some guys you can see different spin on it.”

Both Carroll and Wedge spoke highly of Wells’s change. Wells has effectively utilized his slider and changeup and kept them low in the zone to keep hitters off balance and force groundballs. The results are unquestionable. Wells has an ERA of 2.57 and opposing hitters have manged just a .239/.291/.317 slash line against him.

Command is always critical for a pitcher, but for a guy like Wells,’ pitch location is essential. The numbers show that Wells hits his mark more often than not, and it starts with the first pitch. Wells has a 68.4 first-pitch strike percentage. To put that into perspective, Mike Mussina led all pitchers in that category last season at 67.6 percent. And he won 20 games. Because he is able to establish his fastball and sinker early in the count and supplement that with a changeup for a low strike, his slider becomes a great pitch, which is calculated by fangraphs as 6.3 runs above average. Wells may only throw four pitches (two of them being different types of fastballs) but he throws all of them very well and for strikes.

What’s amazing is that hitters actually do make contact against Wells, just not very good contact. He’s consistent with league averages in contact percentage (Wells 79.6, League 80.6); however, opposing hitters have just a .284 BABIP and just 16.4 percent of hit balls are line drives. And because Wells hasn’t given up many free passes (11 compared to 35 Ks) and very few home runs (2), more often than not he’s put his team in a situation to win.

Most encouraging is what Carroll said, that Wells’s changeup is very hard to pick up because it looks so similar to his fastball. That leads me to believe that his rookie success is more than just luck. As long as his control remains consistent throughout the course of the season, even as teams get a second or third look at him, Wells may have the edge.